The LA Times recently published a piece illustrating the Kidnapping business of AQAP in Yemen. In it the author Ken Dilanian detailed how AQAP has raised a total of $20 Million in the last two years from governments paying ransom to AQAP for the release of their hostages. Twenty Million Dollars. Though this amount is not even a drop in a bucket for a Western government to run a war it is very much enough for AQAP and its affiliated militants to hold ground in southern and eastern parts of Yemen. Dilanian detailed how this money (which AQAP Chief Naser Abdel-Karim Wahishi stated was half of their income) was used to provide not only the resources needed to fight and win its battles in Yemen but to also hold ground utilizing traditional methods of Hearts & Minds via providing civic services and various restitutions to the local populace.

The fact that this amount of money has come in to their coffers by way of lethal extortion is partially disgusting and partially brilliant – from a cold calculation perspective. This business, and more so the business of governments paying, is continuing this situation in Yemen. It is not helping, it is making it worse. Perhaps instead of spending $5 million on a hostage payment, perhaps it is wiser to take $5 million and preemptively provide the services through the Yemeni government or a regional NGO.

The carrot and stick options for kidnapping may be more productive. There is a bit of a logic that US and UK citizens are less likely to be kidnapped because their government publicly refuse to pay; and the chance of getting a Hellfire missile or JSOC team at your door is greater than the chance of a paycheck. Perhaps if more European governments provided the stick option as opposed to the carrot option the simple Pavlovian nature and cost benefit analysis would transpire.