Yemen: 6 dead in raids to catch ministry attackers
Yemen: 6 dead in raids to catch ministry attackers
Into the night, this continued…
Yemen: 6 dead in raids to catch ministry attackers
Into the night, this continued…
RPG hits Yemen’s national security HQ in Sanaa
So this happened last night in Sana’a after all the craziness that was the AQAP Car Bomb.
Al-Qaeda Claims Yemen Attack, Killing 52
Death toll now at 52.
Al Qaeda Commander Clarifies: American Civilians Fair Game
But of course…
Al-Qaeda leaves Yemen for Syria and Egypt
Maybe the Yemen Campaign is working afterall…
Yemeni Salafists reject Al Qaida support
This is pretty interesting…
Al Qaeda in Yemen vows revenge for Shi’ite rebel attack on Salafis
Well this just got interesting…
Inside Yemen special army unit battling Qaeda
This is really great to see. I find it particularly interesting to see the SOF Commander state that he wants “drones” or UAVs for his force so that they can strike the AQAP militant on their own. Just another reminder that the “Drone” war will continue whether the US is involved or not.
In a recent blog post published by the Human Rights Watch at The Huffington Post they discuss their recently published report “Between a Drone and Al-Qaeda: The Civilian Cost of US Targeted Killings in Yemen”. This report is causing serious waves throughout international media (I literally monitor Google News for all items containing the term “Yemen”) with a huge explosion of articles, blog posts and commentary across the digital media world. After reading a few of these I came across the HRW blog post which seems to have the best summary of the report (inshallah, it is written by themselves). Reading the post I was aghast at the number of points either taken out of context, completely based off limited information and just plain biased reporting. Let’s go through their report and see where they failed horribly at spreading such a scandalous report that is being cited around the world as proof of “international war crimes.”
Drones are Not the Problem
“Yemenis told us that these strikes make them fear the US as much as they fear Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula”
This is such an exaggerated quote it is disheartening for all writers, journalists and researchers out there. Walk the streets in Yemen on any day and talk to the people. Sure, they idea of strikes is unnerving and as a semi-nationalist public with firm beliefs in territorialism they generally disdain the strikes. However, I assure you this is not in the forefront of their minds nor concerns on a daily basis. Most people in Yemen are focused on bringing home the
bacon milk so to speak. Their concerns are zeroed in on work, school, family and religion. They number one issue in Yemen that directly impacts via hindrance is power cuts (internet, water and food are there too). Of course when it comes to
In the Arab World’s poorest country, it is not “drone strikes” that are the cause of the nation’s problems, instead it is something far more average; something most academics who sit at desks writing, seem too often to forget about: as one Yemeni stated “We are hungry and we need jobs.” Frankly, I find it appalling and arrogant for a group of such disconnected individuals to really think that the Drone UAV Campaign is the greatest issue facing Yemen.
I would have written and published this piece much sooner had it not been for extensive power & internet outages here in Yemen Since starting this I have been without power for arguably a cumulative 3 days; out of water for 1.5 days and without internet access for something like 4 days. I assure you the average Yemeni is far less concerned about a Hellfire missile than this report makes one believe. In a place where you have arguably far more disturbing things to worry about and far more common issues such as lack of utilities and a near crisis level of starvation a drone taking you out is of little consequence particularly considering the infrequency of occurrences.
The focus on these strikes as opposed to the real problems that affect Yemen, are missed completely, but then again, the real problems don’t make for good site hits, link-backs and viral media. Because in the end it is critiques like this that succumb to the same needs as any online brand – the need for readership. Let us take a look at the issues that affect Yemenis far more than the remote fear of a Hellfire missile falling out of the sky.
Recently, Yemen was listed as one of 16 countries classified as having “alarming” levels of hunger, according to the Global Hunger Index. Food scarcity and inflation is far more a dire situation in Yemen than any buzzing sound up above. So to the critiques of the US UAV program I ask you – What are you doing about this? Because from a US perspective I can tell you that America is doing something about it. It was reported that the final 42,000 metric ton flour donation to the UN World Food Programme (WFP) from the United States Government’s Food for Peace office. The wheat will be milled in Hodeida before being distributed by WFP to some of the 600,000 Yemenis displaced by conflict and instability.
In a country where it is known that poverty is often a driver of instability, why do so many critiques fail to annotate the connection between AQAP and much of the poverty over all. Look at how Yemen’s oil revenues declined to $585 Million from its comparable period last year. Take note of the citation: “The repeated attacks on the oil pipeline linked production blocks in Marib province and the refinery in Hodeida affected significantly the quantity of the crude oil production of designed for domestic consumption.”
How about those critics try to focus on how much money AQAP and its affiliated supporters is costing the Yemeni government and how this impacts the people of Yemen who are just trying to get by day to day.
Yemen’s poor people — around half the country’s population — do not have much of a voice at the talks. Like the woman in the video, many do not even know what the dialogue is. Instead, they are scrambling to make enough money to eat.
Our Policy is Not Drones
The media’s completely biased and hyperbole surrounding the use of UAV strikes is greatly hindering the problems in Yemen. Yes, to be sure, you are making it worse. Not only do you provide ammunition for those opposed to any form of engagement by the International Community in general and the US in particular, causing more incendiary drama that is unneeded; you are single handedly ignoring the troves of reporting, data, information and observations that cover the more important aspects of Yemen.
According to the anti-drone lobby, if you will, all the US does is send drones to Yemen to kill innocent people either intentionally or through negligence. Perhaps you are forgetting the large swaths of assistance the US provides to Yemen. Fret not, I will remind you, don’t mention it, it’s my pleasure.
To begin with, I highly recommend reading “High-Value Target: Countering al Qaeda in Yemen” by Former US Ambassador to Yemen Edmund J. Hull, as it details first-hand the efforts that were made by the US in Yemen when this situation really began to pick up speed.
Next we are going to look at the assistance package from the US to Yemen from 2012. CNN’s Security Clearance Blog reported at the time that:
“In the new assistance package, the State Department will provide roughly $47 million in security assistance. The Pentagon will provide an additional $112 million to train and equip the Yemeni security forces to conduct counterterrorism operations. On the civilian side, the United States will provide $178 million for humanitarian aid, development and assistance to help Yemen transition to democracy.”
Yes that is right, the math shows that the Civilian side of the assistance was greater than the amount of Military aid…by $20 Million. That is “$337 million in assistance in the 2012 fiscal year, up from $147 million provided in the previous fiscal year.” Now because there are many different avenues of funding for many types of aid let’s take a look at what the US is doing for the political transition of the country. In March 2013, the US Department of State reported:
In coordination with the international community, including the United Nations, the United States plans to provide $10.4 million in technical and operational assistance to support the Yemeni-led National Dialogue process, slated to begin March 18. We plan to contribute $1.2 million to support constitutional reform and referendum projects. We also plan to provide $8.4 million in technical assistance to prepare for national elections in February 2014, including for reforms to Yemen’s voter registry. We are also supporting the efforts of Yemeni women to ensure their voices and perspectives contribute to Yemen’s transition.
Looking at the Civilian/Humanitarian side of the aid alone for the 2012 fiscal year, Nabeel Khoury, (former Deputy Chief of Mission 2004-2007) stated “this is more than ten times what U.S. assistance to Yemen was during the 2004-2007 period.” So not only do we provide a ridiculous amount of aid to Yemen – we have exponentially increased it.
It is not just the government that provides a great amount of assistance either. The large mega American corporation of Proctor & Gamble donated millions of vaccinations to the Yemen people, reported TradeArabia.com:
“In total over five million vaccines were donated by P&G to Unicef campaign for use in Yemen. These vaccines were distributed and used by Unicef and the Yemeni Government to vaccinate up to two million mothers of child-bearing age over a period of several weeks in 2011.”
The international community overall is pouring assistance into Yemen. Look at the efforts to better education in Yemen by UNICEF, who recently signed a $72.6 Million agreement to support educational needs in Yemen.
“With rare exceptions, the US government only acknowledges its role in targeted killings in general terms, refusing to take responsibility for individual strikes or provide casualty figures, including civilian deaths.”
Clearly the authors have ignored the fact that it was the Yemeni government, who, when the strikes began, insisted that the US did not take credit for the strikes (same as in Pakistan) out of fear that it would erode political credibility of the administration in the eyes of such a territorial public. But hey, feel free to leave critical facts out of your reporting because it paints a picture better to sell your idea.
“The six strikes investigated by Human Rights Watch killed 82 people, at least 57 of them civilians.”
Let’s look at the fact that of the 6, yes, only 6, attacks that are used as case studies, HRW themselves caveated that “security concerns prevented visits to four of the attack areas.” So the researchers visited only 2 of the 6 locations that they are reporting on. For such an incendiary report to only have conducted research at 1/3rd of the sites is simply poor research methods. The fact that the researchers could not even access 2/3rds of the site locations speaks volumes to the fact that these areas are dangerous and riddled with a notable number of bad guys.
Look at the fact that of the 6 locations or incidents, only one of them occurred in 2009 and the rest all between 2012 and 2013. So If the US has been striking Yemen for years does it not make one question their empirical research if 5/6ths of their research only covered a brief period of time of the operations they are researching? This is just bad research from a scientific perspective. The time and space data are both not representative of the overall theory being published.
Alternatives to UAVs
We used to just swoop in and vanish you from whatever mud-hut tin-roof hide out you were in whether it be Afghanistan, Somalia, Yemen or Pakistan. Then everyone threw their hands up claiming that not only the initial onsite detention was illegal, but the “enhanced interrogation” methods we used were illegal. Okay fine, how about we just hold on to you forever, but then the indefinite detention of detainees was protested and protested so well that the US could not continue it at the level and frequency that they were. This eventually led to the fact that for a bad guy to be neutralized, which we are going to do no matter what – because we generally do not like our skyscrapers and planes falling out of the sky over our cities – if we cannot detain him, cannot process him legally (via criminal means) then the only other option is to kill him. What did people expect to happen?
Frankly, I cannot begin to do justice to the argument against the HRW report and subsequent reporting from it, in its defense. To ascertain a far better grasp of the fallacies of logic in them I implore you to read two additional responses that – if I had better internet would have beat in publishing the same arguments – truly delve into a clearer picture of the issue. The first one is Joshua Foust’s How Human Rights Groups Misinterpret Drone Strikes and the second is Benjamin Wittes’ Thoughts on the Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International Reports. Writtes’ piece actually elicited a response by HRW that you can read here and his subsequent response to them here. I must say that reading HRW’s primary defense of their poor research to Writtes as summarized by saying in effect ‘sure our research was weak but it is not our fault, it is the US governments fault for not telling us everything!’ – well there is an argument that truly wins. Kudos to you HRW. Try focusing on issues that have caused far more deaths in Yemen than UAV strikes such as say I don’t know, maybe the North…or better yet, focus on the human rights abuses by Al Qaeda who crucified a human being.
Al Qaeda militants bomb oil pipeline in Yemen
Good job AQAP – you are only hurting the land and peoples you claim to be defending.
Yemen to construct rehabilitation facility for Guantanamo detainees, al-Qirbi says
Yemen is creating a ‘rehabilitation center’ for GITMO detainees. This is sort of a double edged sword. It is obviously coming from pressure from the US who wants to close down the bulk of GITMO facilities and operations as was promised during the Presidential campaign by the Obama administration. Distributing responsibility to other countries around the world is vital, and particularly with Yemen where a large number of the key Al Qaeda operatives came from is great.
However considering the history Yemen (see here, here & here) has with securing high and mid level value detainees this is unnerving to a degree. If Yemen can more or less guarantee the security of the detainees to be reformed then it may actually work out. Also ensuring the facility is not used to as a re-radicalization facility making moderates worse or extremists
worse even worse that would sure be nice.
Eid-Al-Adha holiday week in Yemen has proven well in Sana’a regarding electricity access and general safety, though not so well in areas outside of the capital of Sana’a considering the slight flurry of attacks that occurred. There have been a number of positive developments that have transpired over the last one to two weeks which are promising. This SITREP (Situation Report) is broken down into three critical sections: Security, Governance & Development.
Violence has not been completely avoided in Yemen for the last dozen or so days: in Lahj Province where 8 people were killed by an AQAP militant attack and also a Yemeni cop killed in drive-by in South East Yemen. On Thursday, 24 October, a Yemeni Intelligence Officer was shot dead in front of his house in the street. Colonel Abdulrahman al-Shami was gunned down by unknown men driving in a vehicle. This is a continuation of targeted assassinations of Military Officers in the capital of Sana’a.
On Tuesday, 22 October, a riot began at the main prison that holds Al Qaeda related inmates. Yemeni security forces were able to neutralize the riot that was viewed as an attempt to break out of the prison by AQAP. Some 300 inmates, all armed with bladed and blunt weapons attacked guards in an attempt to break out. AhramOnline cited the pretext of this event, saying “Nasser al-Wuhayshi, chief of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula — seen by the United States as the network’s deadliest franchise — vowed in August to release imprisoned members of his network. Wuhayshi himself escaped from the same Sanaa prison with 22 other members of AQAP in February 2006 and was named as the group’s leader a year later.”
On Thursday, 24 October, it was reported that 6 AQAP militants, including 3 AQAP commanders, were killed by airstrikes in the southern province of Abyan.
The international news currently has been filled with brutal critiques of the American “drone” or more aptly, UAV, strikes since a report was published regarding the strikes is “war crimes” and illegal according to international law. I will delve into this in a later post, and I promise you it will not be congruent with the media’s view.
The tail end of the NDC efforts continues with the same drama it began with – The North and the South versus the Central. Though there has been much progress, and simply the attendance of such a diverse pool of representatives is great; the core issues that are bulging the seams of the nation continue to drag on. We are still seeing walk outs, protests and general discontentment that is hindering the Sa’ada Working Group for example and the issues with the south. I foresee success and a solution in the end, however as we have seen over the last few months it is not going to occur easily.
In a report citing IMF officials, there has been some pushback toward Yemen that they “ought to help itself first because donor aid usually flows gradually and in some cases it passes in a complex process including conditions by some donors to release aid.” Ensuring Yemen continues to develop from a donor-air state to a fully functioning self-sustainable state is one of the greatest challenges faced by Yemen and its international stakeholders.
On 15 October it was reported that Yemen has introduced a National Youth Jobs Plan, which is a definite step in the right direction regarding the future of a nation that has such a large population of unemployed youth vying for a future. If the Arab Spring has taught the world anything it is that when the youth is unhappy, someone will pay the price.
Yemen has also recently reached out to Malaysia to better their trading relationship. Aside from increased trade Yemen hopes this will increase investment in the country ergo facilitating overall development.
Following 11 October sabotage, the Marib crude oil pipeline has been repaired. The continuance of electrical and petrol network sabotage is a great hindrance to not only a functioning capital but the overall feeling of stability which negates the idea of investment in Yemen. These attacks hurt Yemen plain and simple.
The United Nations is scheduled to send food aid to 4.5 Million Yemenis. Aid, particularly food aid is always a double edged sword. Aid always has the immediate impact effect that is positive and helpful for sustainment of a people; however often this can lead to donor fatigue and dependence on donors instead of providing a sustainable inherent solution.
It was reported that Yemen is due to upgrade its communications infrastructure. Any communications infrastructure upgrade is a positive thing for more disconnected parts of the world as it tends to provide communication and information access. Both provide flow of data that has a tendency to liberalize and assimilate cultures into the rest of the world. The cost of this upgrade will run about $56 Million and is intended to not only upgrade networks in urban centers like Sana’a but also develop networks out in the rural communities which is critical.
The LA Times recently published a piece illustrating the Kidnapping business of AQAP in Yemen. In it the author Ken Dilanian detailed how AQAP has raised a total of $20 Million in the last two years from governments paying ransom to AQAP for the release of their hostages. Twenty Million Dollars. Though this amount is not even a drop in a bucket for a Western government to run a war it is very much enough for AQAP and its affiliated militants to hold ground in southern and eastern parts of Yemen. Dilanian detailed how this money (which AQAP Chief Naser Abdel-Karim Wahishi stated was half of their income) was used to provide not only the resources needed to fight and win its battles in Yemen but to also hold ground utilizing traditional methods of Hearts & Minds via providing civic services and various restitutions to the local populace.
The fact that this amount of money has come in to their coffers by way of lethal extortion is partially disgusting and partially brilliant – from a cold calculation perspective. This business, and more so the business of governments paying, is continuing this situation in Yemen. It is not helping, it is making it worse. Perhaps instead of spending $5 million on a hostage payment, perhaps it is wiser to take $5 million and preemptively provide the services through the Yemeni government or a regional NGO.
The carrot and stick options for kidnapping may be more productive. There is a bit of a logic that US and UK citizens are less likely to be kidnapped because their government publicly refuse to pay; and the chance of getting a Hellfire missile or JSOC team at your door is greater than the chance of a paycheck. Perhaps if more European governments provided the stick option as opposed to the carrot option the simple Pavlovian nature and cost benefit analysis would transpire.
Yesterday in the Yemeni Capital of Sana’a, a security officer of the German Embassy was murdered & a member of UNICEF was kidnapped. This has some potentially notable ramifications for the security environment in – for Yemen standards that is – considering that a foreigner was actually killed.
For most of modern Yemeni history – and particularly the last 1-2 years since the revolution – kidnappings targeted foreigners that were journalists & NGO workers & killings targeted Yemeni government officials. The UNICEF kidnapping is not too surprising, though it being the second one in the last month after quite a lull does show an increase of OPTEMPO of these tactics.
The really disturbing issue is that of the killing. Now if it was an abduction gone bad then that could fit into the normal paradigm of Yemeni kidnapping. However, if it was a straight up targeted killing then things have perhaps gone to a whole new level. Historically foreigners were not targeted for killing. My take is that the kidnapping was probably a typical tribal kidnapping (at least I hope so) and the murder was an Al Qaeda effort. If AQAP has begin to target foreigners for killing then things may have reached a notable new level. We will unfortunately have to wait and see if this develops into a pattern or not.
Because it is not even noon yet and apparently AQAP subscribes to the “Early Bird Gets the Worm”. See the Reuters article here.
So apparently this happened today: Al-Qaida assassinates senior officer in Yemen’s capital. This is the third attack on the Yemeni Air Force in the last 5 weeks that I know of. Two (one was a double hit) attacks on Air Force buses and now this assassination. Why the Yemeni Air Force (as opposed to the Army, Police etc) has been the repeated target of AQAP is unknown. Perhaps for some reason they are a softer target or perhaps it is specifically regarding their air-war against AQAP in the south and the presumed connection with US air assets that utilize armed UAV resources. Perhaps even this is merely a matter of Targets of Opportunity and nothing more.