This was the worst coup ever.
The only shot fired was by a Capital Police Officer that killed a female protestor. One non-protester was killed, after the fact from injuries sustained during the event. Two people died from ancillary medical issues, likely due to stress and fear from the event, one person died because they accidently tased themselves during the event and thus had a heart attack.
Two pipe bombs were found – not at the Capitol Building but located at the Republican and Democrat Headquarters. Molotov cocktails were found also – again not at the capital but inside the vehicle of one protestor. Reportedly a man with a “long gun” entered the building. A long gun. Not a handgun, not an “assault rifle” and not an easily concealed MP5. Not a weapon that is easily concealed, and not a weapon that can fire rapidly at multiple politicians or security staff, nor a weapon that can easily reload, nor a weapon that is effective at close quarters combat. No, a long gun. Literally the worst weapon you can imagine to conduct a coup in this situation.
Incitement of Violence
Trump conducted a 4 hour long “Save America Rally” before the event. During the rally multiple people spoke. The closest thing to inciting violence was when Giuliani utilized the phrase “trial by combat.” Trump himself referenced marching to the Capitol Building 3 times. One of those times he added qualifiers to it, when he stated, “everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.”
Despite this, Trump was immediately accused of telling, directing, ordering and motivating his supporters to go to the Capitol Building and attack them violently. Additionally, the narrative consistently refers to the event as a terrorist attack, coup, attempted assassination. These are strong words that have strong meanings.
Screaming protesters can be extremely dangerous. Unlike smaller groups or individuals, once in a mob – the larger it is, the more dangerous they can be. I would fear for my life if I believed an angry screaming mob wanted to harm or kill me. In fact, I have. One year before this event, I was at the US Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq.
This was a siege that was directed by Iran, and the thousands of “protesters” held the compound hostage for ~13 hours before a show of force arrived and the majority of the protestors departed. During this event, the attackers broke through the gates, and burnt down the gate guard buildings, while throwing Molotov cocktails and rocks at the walls, cameras and over the walls. This was a terrorist attack. It was well thought out, strategic and had a logical intent.
The voting would have led to one of two outcomes. First, a review of votes, that may lean to towards Trump winning. Second, Trump not winning. For probability, there was a 50% chance Biden would win. And the other 50% that either Biden would win, or Trump would win. Trump’s best chance of winning was to let the vote play out, and hope that his own Vice President and his supporters in Congress would agree to a review of the votes.
Trump had already faced impeachment once and knows he is the prime target of most domestic and many international, elements in the media and most of the political establishment – it has been his mantra since day one. It stands to reason that there is no doubt, that if Trump performed anything additionally significant to his current course of action of demanding recounts, that he would be targeted further.
If the options are to 1) direct a coup and become further a pariah in the last minute, that will without question not succeed in changing the vote outcome and potentially land him in jail or impeached; or 2) let the vote review continue, where he has supporters inside and could actually win; the first option is the opposite of what he supposedly wants.
In full disclosure, there are an additional two potential options that are outside of rational logic. Option 3 – he internationally incited the event, in hopes that it would lead to a national security emergency where most of the US government leadership is murdered or incapacitated, and Trump can somehow declare a domestic war against his own people and somehow manage to stay in power a bit longer. If this is the case, then Trump’s massive conspiracy to stage a coup, with a headpiece sporting a horned helmet and face-paint, was unsuccessful either way. Moreover, this would be the most strategic, ignorant plan of all possible plans.
The fourth potential option is that he knew he was not going to see another term, and thus decided to hit back with the most absurd chaotic, if-im-going-down-then-so-will-all-of-you option. If this was the option he chose, then it stands to reason there would be no holding back in his attempts to stoke and incite potentially the most daring domestic attack since September 11th, 2001.
The idea that Trump took option one seems unlikely. Option one indicates a fairly strategic attempt to achieve the opposite of what he wants: to win the election – thus being strategic to be unstrategic. The second option would potentially lead to Trumps ideal outcome. It would also potentially lead to an entire full term (barring a later removal). It is also the option that continues in synch with Trumps entire strategy all along – claiming election fraud before the election, untrusted mail-in ballots, fraud during the election, and extreme bias after the fact and betrayal by Pence on the day of.
The third option
The second option, pressuring Congress to conduct a review was the only option of all four to achieve a second term
Nothing in this writing means Trump is innocent of being divisive, knowing his words will or have motivated people into violence. Nothing in this writing asserts that Trump should not be impeached, nor does it counter the idea that Congress should invoke the 25th amendment. In fact, everything above can be accurate, and my conclusion can be accurate while also not